Forecast for 2017 … the
crushing consensus on the equity side … the S&P 500 will end next year up another
5 percent gain from today’s level, according to the median forecast of analysts
… FT 12/5/16
Vanguard: The investment environment for the next five
years may prove more challenging than the previous five, underscoring the need
for discipline, reasonable expectations, and low-cost strategies…Stocks.
After several years of suggesting that low economic growth need not equate with
poor equity returns, our medium-run outlook for global equities remains guarded
in the 5%–7% range.
TREND LINE: The dashed trend line of 6.3% is the US
equity rate of return since 1801 and this rate has been remarkably consistent
over 30- to 50-year time frames ever since (the 6.3% graph is adjusted for
dividend reinvestment to be comparable to the S&P 500 basic index).
Vanguard Funds 12/31/16
Name of Vanguard
fund
|
Fund
Number
|
Current yield
|
1-yr
|
5-yr
|
10-yr
|
GNMA bond fund
|
0036
|
2.07
|
1.84
|
1.95
|
4.36
|
Intermediate Term Corp bond
|
1946
|
3.48
|
5.03
|
4.50
|
-
|
REIT index fund
|
0123
|
3.98
|
8.50
|
11.78
|
5.23
|
Wellesley Income
|
0027
|
2.64
|
8.08
|
7.29
|
6.66
|
Wellington fund
|
0021
|
2.37
|
11.01
|
10.44
|
6.89
|
S&P
500 Index fund
|
0040
|
|
11.93
|
14.62
|
|
US Hi-Dividend yield
|
0623
|
3.04
|
16.75
|
14.23
|
7.02
|
Small-Cap Value Index
|
0860
|
1.85
|
24.78
|
16.36
|
-
|
Emerging Market index
|
0533
|
1.70
|
11.73
|
1.44
|
1.87
|
Emerging Market Select
|
0752
|
1.44
|
16.86
|
2.74
|
-
|
Total Intl Hi Dividend yield
|
0530
|
2.35
|
12.03
|
-
|
-
|
Total World Stock index
|
0628
|
2.14
|
8.67
|
9.74
|
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ETFs
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intermediate Term Corp bond
|
VCIT
|
3.48
|
5.27
|
4.40
|
-
|
US Hi Dividend yield
|
VYM
|
3.12
|
16.89
|
14.31
|
7.14
|
Total US Stock Mkt
|
VTI
|
1.97
|
12.74
|
14.64
|
7.23
|
Total Intl Hi Dividend yield
|
VYMI
|
2.40
|
15.75
|
-
|
-
|
Total World Stock Mkt (incl
US)
|
VT
|
2.30
|
8.47
|
9.73
|
|
Utilities ETF
|
VPU
|
3.55
|
17.56
|
10.71
|
7.10
|
|
|
|
|
|
|